Kotkaniemi: Sophomore Jinx or…

How many times, not only in hockey but in professional sports, have we seen athletes having a good first season, only to take a step back in the second season? A sophomore jinx, sometimes referred to as sophomore slump or sophomore jitters, refers to an instance in which a second, or sophomore, effort fails to live up to the relatively high standards of the first effort. In terms of sports, it often speaks of an athlete’s second season. While it’s hard to put the finger on the exact cause of such change in performance, the phenomenon can be explained either psychologically, or by competing athletes or teams adjusting to ones’ success. It is then to the athlete to find a way, through hard work and perseverance, to take the next step by making the necessary adjustments.

In the NHL, there are numerous examples of players who have gone through the sophomore slump. Some have risen above it in their third or fourth season, others have crumbled under the pressure, unable to ever repeat what they set to become in their first year. When talking about high draft picks however, the tendency is for players to find a way out of that said slump by year three or four.

Here are a few names of NHL top-4 draft picks who have gone through the sophomore jinx, or have gone through a slower progression:

  • Eric Staal (#2 overall) scored 11 goals in his rookie season, only to spend his entire second season in the American Hockey League (AHL).
  • Bobby Ryan (#2 overall) had to suffer through four seasons in the AHL before making it to the NHL.
  • Kyle Turris (#3 overall) scored 8 goals in his rookie season, then had to spend the next two seasons in the AHL.
  • Ryan Johansen (#4 overall) had seasons of nine and 5 goals before turning the corner.
  • Jonathan Huberdeau (#3 overall) scored 14 goals in his rookie season, nine in his second season and 15 in his third season before taking the next step.
  • Jonathan Drouin split his first two seasons between the NHL and the AHL. That’s 70 games at the NHL level in his rookie season, down to 21 in his second (amid being in his NHL coach’s doghouse).

Granted some of those are not, by true definition, sophomore slumps but stick with me for a bit, you will see where I’m getting to.

Kotkaniemi

The Montreal Canadiens and their fans don’t have to look far to find an example of a player having more trouble in his second season. Young Finnish centre Jesperi Kotkaniemi is struggling out of the gates this season, following a promising first season in the NHL. Some people see this as alarming, others feel like it’s part of the progression for a young player in his second year at this level. The fact is that nobody knows and all will find out in a year or two… but are we patient enough to wait before holding judgment? Asking the question, particularly in Montreal, is to answer it. Patience and Habs’ fans (media too) simply don’t go hand in hand.

The kid they nickname KK was the first player born in the 2000’s to play in the NHL. Last year, he was the youngest player in the league. Yet, he still managed 11 goals and 34 points in his rookie season and that, in spite of his play fading towards the end, opening his eyes on just how long and grueling a NHL season truly is. His selection at third overall surprised many but the young man seduced the fanbase with a smile that never ends, an exemplary attitude, some promising play and charisma few players have.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Nick Suzuki

At training camp this fall, Kotkaniemi had put on 16 pounds of muscle, something much needed as he spent a lot of time on his knees last year, being constantly pushed around by much heavier players. But straight from camp, we could see that something was off. He wasn’t skating as well and his decision making wasn’t on par to what we had seen last year. He and teammate Jonathan Drouin were taking some heat for their lackluster pre-season games and while young veteran Drouin found his game when regular season started, KK seemed to keep skating in quicksand… until he was placed on the injury list with a slight pulled groin.

The time off, or his delayed return, got a lot of people talking around Montreal. Were the Habs hiding something? Were they holding him back from making a return? Let’s just say that the conspiracy theorists were out in high numbers, questioning the so-called lack of transparency of the organisation. But hey, we’re used to that, right? Listenership, viewership and readership sells and there’s a group of fans who seems feed on that kind of stuff.

KK ended up missing seven games before returning to the line-up on November 16th against the New Jersey Devils, a game in which he only played nine minutes. In his second game back against the Columbus Blue Jackets, he logged 14:17 minutes and has nothing to show for offensively in those two games. In fact, Kotkaniemi only has three points (2 goals, 1 assist) in 14 games this season. His time on the ice per game has dropped from 13:44 minutes last season to 12:50 minutes, while his power-play time has gone from 1:56 minutes per game last season down to 1:08 so far this season.

The process

Some fans and members of the media are extremely hard on KK and while they are not wrong in pointing that his play is not where it was last year, they tend to forget that he’s only 19 years old and that developing a player is not a race. Those complaining are often the same ones who complained that the Habs “ruined” Alex Galchenyuk in his development. The truth is that the Canadiens are taking a progressive approach with the young man, adapting to his progression (or seemingly slight regression in this case). The Canadiens simply cannot miss the boat with this pick and they know it. In spite of what sensationalists will try to make you believe, Claude Julien, Dominique Ducharme and Kirk Muller are working WITH Kotkaniemi and not AGAINST him.

Also, KK is benefiting immensely from the outstanding leadership of team captain Shea Weber, Carey Price, Brendan Gallagher, Jeff Petry, Nathan Thompson, Paul Byron and company. These guys have been there and are taking the young players under their wings, Kotkaniemi included. Furthermore, the young man has the luxury of having quality players ahead of him in the lineup, which should, in theory, alleviate unnecessary pressure. But I we can be convinced of one thing: if there is any pressure placed on him, it’s not coming from within the organisation. It’s coming from blood-thirsty media members and fans who don’t know any better, or from those who so desperately want Marc Bergevin to plant himself, that they will want KK to fail in order to be proven right.

Dominique Ducharme teaches Kotkaniemi

There is no doubt that part of the pressure from fans and media is coming from the surprising play of rookie Nick Suzuki, drawing unavoidable comparisons between the two. What people do seem to forget however, is that Nick is a year older. As good as he might be now, we cannot forget that at 19, Suzuki was playing junior hockey. At 18, he was also playing junior hockey. Kotkaniemi was in the NHL. So the true question is: where will KK be in a year from now, and not so much where is he now.

In my humble opinion, from the outside looking in, Kotkaniemi is just fine. He is going through that sophomore jinx but he is in good hands. As you are well aware, I have been critical at times of Claude Julien’s decisions but I am entirely confident and supportive of the way he’s handling his young centre. He’s sheltering him more than ever. We have already debunked the myth that Julien is not good with young players, and he’s doing with KK what he’s done with other young players he’s coached before.

Some fans would like him to get on the power-play and be given a chance on the top-2 lines in hope that he finds his mojo back. It is my opinion that it would be too high of a risk and detrimental to his confidence and development to do so while he’s looking to find his game. Let’s not forget that while Julien’s job includes developing players, his main duty is to win games and put players in positions to help him do just that. KK is still a teenager playing against the best men in the world. He is filling in, growing both physically and emotionally. He is learning. He has a great attitude. He will be good, likely very good. Give him time folks and trust the process. Go Habs Go!

Habs Silence The Mass

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For about a year now, they were many who predicted and hoped that, by early this season, they would be able to continue on their campaign in hoping that the moves made by the Montreal Canadiens would flop, and ultimately resulting in head coach Michel Therrien being fired. You see, there is a mass waiting in the weeds for the right occasion to say: “I told you so.” And fortunately for us and unfortunately for them, they are still waiting as the team is performing beyond expectations… theirs, that is.

You know why? Because in spite of their anger, Shea Weber is a candidate for the Norris Trophy. Because bringing in Kirk Muller has paid dividends. Because signing Alexander Radulov is proving to be a great move. And because the dressing room is now all pulling in one direction, regardless of the injuries the team has suffered in the first half of the season. The Montreal Canadiens are a team and they, as a team, are proving the nay-sayers wrong.

Oh everything is far from perfect, even the most loyal fan will tell you, and so will the Habs’ brass. There are things that are going well, very well as a matter of fact, and other areas needing a bit more attention. I mean, who in their right mind would have predicted that the Canadiens’ powerplay would be second in the NHL by the All-Star break, and that the team would sit seventh in the NHL in goals for per game, let alone being the fifth best team in the overall standings at this point?

Just how good are the Canadiens?

Here is a look at what the Canadiens have accomplished up until now:

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Let’s now analyse this a bit closer. The powerplay, while inconsistent, is just fine. It’s the penalty kill that needs some major improvement. Not only isn’t it performing the way it had in the past few years, but the team is taking way too many minor penalties. More penalties equals more penalty kills, combined with a low success rate killing penalties means more goals against. The solution to work on? Focus on staying out of the box, particularly cutting on unnecessary penalties, and work on strategies with the players killing penalties.

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Michel Therrien

The team is doing excellent at five on five, amongst the best in the NHL. Not only are their possession numbers good, but their shots attempts are up with the top teams and so is their goaltenders’ saves percentage at even strength. However, they are turning the puck over too much and that, along with the penalties they take, is a huge contributor to the shots allowed per game while impeding their time spent on offense.

If I’m the coaching staff, those are the areas I’m focusing on the most. The rest will take care of itself. Oh and to those wanting Therrien fired after every single team loss, you are not only embarrassing yourselves, but you are making all Habs’ fans look bad. Therrien is being rewarded for his work as he will be representing the Canadiens at the All-Star game, coaching the Atlantic Division’s team.

Habs acquire defenseman Nikita Nesterov

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Nikita Nesterov

Nesterov, a 23 year-old left-handed puck moving defenseman, is joining the team while Ryan Johnston is heading back to St. John’s. The Canadiens gave up prospect Jonathan Racine and a sixth round pick in 2017 for the 5’11, 191 lbs young Russian who has 3 goals, 12 points in 35 games this season with the Lightning. He earns $750,000 this season and is a pending RFA, with arbitration rights, this summer.

This move puts the Canadiens against the salary cap and many are those who believe that this move hides another one coming within the next few days or weeks. We have been speculating on this blog that Nathan Beaulieu could be dangled to fill other holes in the line-up and that move just adds fuel to those speculations. Stay tuned.