The Skinner Effect on Pacioretty? Not So Fast!

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The market value of a player is a constant moving target, everyone knows that. There are so many things factoring into how much players are worth, particularly when it comes to trade value. Age, production, health issues, statistics… and yes, even intangibles such as off-ice antics, grit and leadership. But really, a players isn’t worth what most General Managers would give up for that player, but rather what only one GM is willing to trade away to acquire him. Only one. And when assessing that, there are even more factors playing into what they are willing to sacrifice in order to get rid of or acquire a player.

We had a good example of that on August 2nd when the Carolina Hurricanes traded away Jeff Skinner to the Buffalo Sabres for what seems to be a relatively low return. Skinner, a 3-times 30 goals scorer, only has one year left to his contract and Hurricanes’ GM Don Waddell “settled” for a former third round pick in Cliff Pu, Buffalo’s second round pick in 2019 as well as their third and sixth round picks in 2020. Call it what you want but value-wise, this is low return for a proven NHL goals’ scorer.

Some people are quick at saying that Buffalo won that trade hands-down, but this will prove to be true only if they manage to re-sign Skinner or if they manage to get significant assets in return for him at the trade deadline if they don’t get him re-signed. If he walks away next summer, it will be a steep price to pay. But that’s beside the point.

Effect on Pacioretty’s value?

Many people were quick at pointing out that this trade should set the benchmark for Max Pacioretty‘s value in a trade. This is, in my opinion, a very superficial analysis of the Pacioretty situation. Yes, Skinner is a winger with one year left to his contract and yes, he has scored similarly to Pacioretty (in a shorter career though) but that’s where the comparison ends. One plays in all situations including short-handed, the other one doesn’t. And one is captain of his team, voted by his teammates. Skinner also had a no-trade clause, which Pacioretty doesn’t have, and came with a cap hit of $5.725M, which is over a million dollars more than the Canadiens’ captain. But then again, that’s all superficial.

In my humble opinion, Skinner is worth more than what Carolina received for him but there is no doubt that the Sabres had the best offer out there – at that time – and that’s the return that they got for him. Don Waddell settled. He’s sitting at the poker table, he flinched and panicked. Whether he was forced or not to trade Skinner at that time, only he knows, but this moves smells desperation. And for an experienced GM like him, that’s a no-no. Unless Skinner had requested a trade and had threatened to not show up at training camp (and even then), Waddell should have hung on to Skinner and even started the season with him in the line-up instead of giving him away for less than his value. That’s my opinion anyway.

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Marc Bergevin is holding for higher value for Max Pacioretty

Contrarily to Waddell, Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin has chosen to take the same approach as Joe Sakic did with Matt Duchene, and what Steve Yzerman chose to do with Jonathan Drouin back then: if the price isn’t what you feel is true value is at this moment in time, hang on to your asset. Someone will come calling later. Every team is a contender in August but injuries happen during a season, teams and GMs get desperate. Further, it seems rather obvious that Bergevin, for a second year in a row, won’t be spending anywhere close to the salary cap and that, even with Carey Price‘s new contract kicking in. This means that he will be able to accommodate a team by taking a contract to get more in return if or when he trades Pacioretty. But as we touched on recently, the Canadiens are, under no circumstances, in a position where they have to trade their captain.

So what’s Pacioretty’s value? His value is what ONE General Manager is willing to pay at a point in time. This will be dictated by the level of desperation that said GM will be in, and how Pacioretty picks up his game after a bad season, in what is now a contract year for him. In addition, a positive twist with Skinner being traded is that it’s one less asset available for those teams looking for a quality scoring winger. That also has an effect on value. Will the Canadiens get more for Pacioretty by choosing to wait? Time will tell but what we know now is that the offers aren’t anywhere close to his value.

In the meantime, be grateful that it’s Bergevin and not Waddell who runs the Habs as the return may not have been much different than what the Hurricanes got for Skinner. Go Habs Go!

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Tankin’ For Dahlin: The Race

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There you have it folks. The last week of activities in the 2017-2018 NHL season is about to start and it’s a six horse race… to the bottom. The grand prize? A Swedish defenseman by the name of Rasmus Dahlin, who is often compared to former Detroit Red Wings legend Nicklas Lindström. All things considered, it’s not a bad prize for finishing near the bottom of the standings for having a season of misery, isn’t it?

As the NHL has released the odds of picking first overall in its draft lottery, teams are now jostling for position in hope to get the better draft picks comes June in Dallas. Teams looking to improve are looking at those odds closely, and all are dreaming of picking first overall and land a franchise player. Those odds are as follows:

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With a week left to the regular season, it has now become a six-teams race to the finish and anyone can get that elusive first overall pick. Here are the NHL standings for mediocrity prior to Friday’s games:

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Individual Teams Schedule Remaining

Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule for those six teams, shall we? In order, from top to bottom…

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With four (4) games remaining, the Detroit Red Wings will be playing three (3) home games and one (1) on the road. Three of the four teams they will be facing are out of the playoffs’ race, with only the Columbus Blue Jackets (3rd in the Metropolitan division) being playoffs’ bound.

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The Montreal Canadiens will finish the season playing five (5) games in eight (8) nights. All but one team (Detroit) are playoffs’ teams and three (3) of those games will be on the road. That’s a tough schedule ahead of Claude Julien‘s team.

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Winners of three consecutive games, the Vancouver Canucks have been playing some better hockey as of late. They will be at home for three (3) more games before finishing the season in Edmonton against the Oilers. Columbus and the Los Angeles Kings are fighting for a playoffs’ spot but both the Arizona Coyotes and the Oilers are out of contention.

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The Ottawa Senators needed overtime to finally end a six-game losing streak last night against the Florida Panthers. That is rather mind-boggling for a team that finished in the final four in last year’s playoffs, and for a team that’s healthy as we speak. It must be full “tank mode” in Ottawa. They have two very winnable games against Detroit and Buffalo, but Winnipeg, Pittsburgh and Boston won’t be a walk in the park for the Sens down the stretch.

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Symbol of mediocrity year after year, the Arizona Coyotes will once again be in the hunt for another good draft year. The St. Louis Blues and the Anaheim Ducks occupy the two Wild Card spots in the Western Conference, while the Calgary Flames and the Canucks are out of the race. Two games at home, two on the road for the desert dogs.

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Ah the Buffalo Sabres… every year is supposed to be the year when they get out of the basement and yet, here they are again. Not an easy schedule to end the season either in Buffalo as they will have to square off against the likes of the Nashville Predators, the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Florida Panthers (all on the road), with only the Senators as a bit of a reprieve at home.

So here you have it folks. Place your bets and see where the chips land after the dust settles comes April 8th, when it’s all set and done and the final standings are finalized. What will the Habs’ draft odds be when the seasons is all played out? Your guess is as good as mine, but if I were a betting man (which I’m not), I’d say that Marc Bergevin‘s team should finish in the bottom-five in the NHL. Sad and disappointing for sure, but with the team having eight (8) picks in the first four (4) rounds (including four in the second round), and with the possibility of adding one more if the LA Kings make the playoffs, finishing lower means better choices at the draft table… or the possibility of trading up to get an even better one. Try to enjoy this final week folks, as that’s the last you’ll see of this year’s edition of the Canadiens… thank goodness for that! Go Habs Go!